KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

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Re: New Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Thread.

Post#71 » Wed Aug 09, 2017 7:44 pm

This seems odd to me:

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Coming into the war, RUS.JEDI is ever-so-slightly ahead of Hostile.Warfare.

So why is it that Hostile.Warfare can lose points and RUS.JEDI can't? Why is it that RUS.JEDI gains more for a win than Hostile.Warfare does?

I haven't looked closely at the algorithm; I suppose there's probably a mechanism for weighting recent results more heavily and this is just a result of that -- that Hostile.Warfare has some good results that are fading out of the calculation with time -- but it's a weird situation.


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Winnie
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Re: New Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Thread.

Post#72 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 10:40 pm

Something is wrong here. :)

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I _ ShadowCompany _ I
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Winnie
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Re: New Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Thread.

Post#73 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 1:06 pm

Winnie wrote:Something is wrong here. :)

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I _ ShadowCompany _ I
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Swad
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Re: New Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Thread.

Post#74 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 2:26 pm

I am just in a typical squad but have no idea what your queries are guys, if any.
Presumably if the software predicts one team will win, it doesnt mean it will be the case.
Many teams, including mine have a lot of players and rarely fields the strongest team, which presumably skews predictions. Sometimes we lead with ond or two level 10s, sometimes a nine or 8 and sometimes nothing bigger than a 7 .
Its just a game, and in war you win or lose.
Active Imperial war squads : Spawn and Spawn~Rising.

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DaLoc
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Re: New Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Thread.

Post#75 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:12 pm

To answer Winnie and Chancellor, i'll tell this story about boxing (or whatever one on one sport that suits you).

Veteran A has been around the block and has a hypothetical 100 - 25 record. We've seen his matches and can tell he is a B+ player. Newcomer B is lighting it up starting with a 20 - 0 record. Is Newcomer B really that good where he is A+ player. It's highly skeptical because he only beat all the lower ranks so far (the B's and below). Lets rank them A- because it's in the middle of their ceiling of A+ and their floor of B. Later on the vet and newbie face off. Now we see if the newcomer is really as good as they say. If the vet wins, we don't learn as much cause the unpredictability of the newcomer. If the newcomer wins, we know that they are at least a B+ player and will definitely shoot up the rankings.
Ios (Empire) SithForceElite (HQ 8+) Sithforceacademy (HQ 8-)
Maxed HQ 10 (cept lvl 32 and 20 dekas)
Ios (Rebel) MiserySquad1E (HQ 9+) MiseryAcademy1E (HQ 9-)
HQ 10


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Re: New Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Thread.

Post#76 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:17 pm

Swad, I think you've misunderstood what's being called into question. The question isn't about how likely it is that one squad or the other will win; it's about how many points will be gained or lost.

You'd expect a ranking system to award more points for beating a strong opponent than for beating a weak one. You'd expect it to take away more points for losing to a weak opponent than for losing to a strong one. But these examples show it doesn't always work that way.

In Winnie's example, the 174th ranked squad losing to the 55th ranked squad would cost them 327 skill points. But the 55th ranked squad losing to the 174th wouldn't cost them any points at all. So losing to a team weaker than you doesn't cost you anything, but losing to a team stronger than you causes a huge drop; that seems weird, doesn't it?

In my example, the two teams are very close -- 86th and 87th. So the effect is much subtler, but it's weird that the 86th-ranked team stands to gain more for a win than the 87th-ranked team does (173 to 154). And it's particularly screwy that 86 losing to 87 would cause them to gain points, while 87 losing to 86 causes them to lose points.

The question isn't about whether the site has the right team ranked higher or how likely an upset is; the question is why the site is punishing teams for losing to higher-ranked teams more than it punishes them for losing to lower-ranked teams.


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Re: New Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Thread.

Post#77 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 5:20 pm

DaLoc, doesn't that lead to the newcomer having bigger swings in both directions?

In my example, we have the higher-ranked team gaining more for a win but not losing more for a loss; I'm struggling to see how a ranking confidence factor could lead to that outcome.


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DaLoc
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Re: New Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Thread.

Post#78 » Sat Aug 12, 2017 6:06 pm

the higher rank team should not lose more. The best team in the world in X sport can lose to the worst team by pure coincidence. Does that make the upset team the new best in the world despite their record being 1 - 100. (The answer is no.) Your war is over so I don't know your standard deviations before the match started.

But to my example, that answers how good the newcomer is. It does not answer the opposite question of how bad are they. They would need more wars to determine their ceiling.

Looking at Shadow-Company's 0.808 Sigma, I can tell that the algo has no idea where to place that squad which hurts their ranking.
Ios (Empire) SithForceElite (HQ 8+) Sithforceacademy (HQ 8-)
Maxed HQ 10 (cept lvl 32 and 20 dekas)
Ios (Rebel) MiserySquad1E (HQ 9+) MiseryAcademy1E (HQ 9-)
HQ 10


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Winnie
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Re: New Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Thread.

Post#79 » Sun Aug 13, 2017 2:48 pm

We were in the top 50, we didnt lose since march 2017 and we are much lower atm. A lot team are behind us with 2x-3x loses.
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I _ ShadowCompany _ I
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DaLoc
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Re: New Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Thread.

Post#80 » Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:18 pm

I didn't make the algo or see the equations behind it. I'm just explaining the mathematical meaning for each statistic.

I do want to point out that I suggested the sigma multiplier be 2 (maybe even lower) back in post 47. Originally, Kender had it at 3. The Lonegunman site had it at 4 then dialed it back to 3.5. Dialing it back to its original value should help more since raising it make the aging more aggressive. So it will take even more wars to get more accurate rankings. That is my suggestion to possibly help squads like Shadow Company. But without seeing every equation, I don't know how much it helps.
Ios (Empire) SithForceElite (HQ 8+) Sithforceacademy (HQ 8-)
Maxed HQ 10 (cept lvl 32 and 20 dekas)
Ios (Rebel) MiserySquad1E (HQ 9+) MiseryAcademy1E (HQ 9-)
HQ 10


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