KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

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Midge
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#201 » Sat Dec 01, 2018 5:36 pm

DeathStriker wrote:
Spock wrote:Just want to let everyone know we plan to turn the ager back on this Monday. December 3rd.
That should have given everyone enough time to get a war in since the outage.

Spock - Thanks for Posting :D


Seems with GSOW looming ... might be a good time to just keep this item "rolled back"

:D
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DarkRebel
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#202 » Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:40 am

Why is this squad ranked in top 500 ?
http://ksod.us/squad/26051f22-de5e-11e5 ... db/history

I’d say the ager does more damage to the ranking than helping. Just disable it or extend the triggering time to at least 2 weeks.


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XitLiteNtrNite
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#203 » Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:18 pm

DarkRebel wrote:Why is this squad ranked in top 500 ?
http://ksod.us/squad/26051f22-de5e-11e5 ... db/history

I’d say the ager does more damage to the ranking than helping. Just disable it or extend the triggering time to at least 2 weeks.

The ager has nothing to do with their ranking; the (really, really low) sigma does, though. It will take a monumental upset for the squad to move up or down the leaderboard at this point, as TrueSkill has determined that it is fairly certain the squad is ranked where they should be.
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SpaceDandy
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#204 » Sun Dec 02, 2018 3:53 pm

I love ksod and all the work Spock and others do to maintain and improve it...but that is, admittedly, a weird squad to have ranked that high. It looks less like the ager at issue - which I believe pushes non-weekly warriors down - but perhaps a case of frequency actively helping the ranking. They look like they start a war as soon as one ends...and lose...and then do it again...and lose...repeat. If that's "where they should be", it strikes me as odd anomaly on the site. They are 25-327-1 and the average score of a war is a 13-41 loss.
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Jax
Commander
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#205 » Sun Dec 02, 2018 4:38 pm

DarkRebel wrote:Why is this squad ranked in top 500 ?
http://ksod.us/squad/26051f22-de5e-11e5 ... db/history

I’d say the ager does more damage to the ranking than helping. Just disable it or extend the triggering time to at least 2 weeks.



25 wins and over 300 losses - That's a lot of salvage crates.


Boog
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#206 » Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:50 pm

We had a war with a squad like that once. I think they were 12-200, or something insane. They hadn't won a war in over 6 months, but they did war ALL THE TIME, and were ranked around 500, which was way too high based on their record.


DarkRebel
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#207 » Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:36 pm

XitLiteNtrNite wrote:
DarkRebel wrote:Why is this squad ranked in top 500 ?
http://ksod.us/squad/26051f22-de5e-11e5 ... db/history

I’d say the ager does more damage to the ranking than helping. Just disable it or extend the triggering time to at least 2 weeks.

The ager has nothing to do with their ranking; the (really, really low) sigma does, though. It will take a monumental upset for the squad to move up or down the leaderboard at this point, as TrueSkill has determined that it is fairly certain the squad is ranked where they should be.

So if it’s not attendance record (ager), can you explain the key difference between this squad and my squad, AncientWarriors ?
http://ksod.us/squad/4edf2fcb-4c8c-11e5 ... c1/history


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Midge
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#208 » Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:09 am

DarkRebel wrote:
XitLiteNtrNite wrote:
DarkRebel wrote:Why is this squad ranked in top 500 ?
http://ksod.us/squad/26051f22-de5e-11e5 ... db/history

I’d say the ager does more damage to the ranking than helping. Just disable it or extend the triggering time to at least 2 weeks.

The ager has nothing to do with their ranking; the (really, really low) sigma does, though. It will take a monumental upset for the squad to move up or down the leaderboard at this point, as TrueSkill has determined that it is fairly certain the squad is ranked where they should be.

So if it’s not attendance record (ager), can you explain the key difference between this squad and my squad, AncientWarriors ?
http://ksod.us/squad/4edf2fcb-4c8c-11e5 ... c1/history


Your squad is moved by the ager, significantly. As it should be. You barely average one war a week. So, it ages you regularly.

The ager has nothing to do with THEIR squad. When you war that often in a TrueSkill algo then the algo learns more about you on a regular basis and has enough information to say where it thinks you fall. When you war 135 times in about 128 weeks, the system is going to feel like it does not know that much about you. So, you're going to bounce around a ton.
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SpaceDandy
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#209 » Mon Dec 03, 2018 6:18 am

Given all the confidence the system has in knowing this squad, it ought to know they are, um, not good. No offense, but just objectivly not as good. Some data stabilizes quicker than other in data sets like this but should result in a stabilized understanding that this squad isn’t deserving of this rank - not conflating its confidence in the data with what that data is actually saying. Or at least better balancing between the number of data points and what those data points say. If the Baltimore Orioles played 1,062 games last season and the Red Sox played 162, at their respective winning percentages, one should be more confident how bad the O’s are and not overly diminish the Sox’s excellence based on fewer games played. Especially when the other squads/teams play closer to, per the analogy, 162 game schedule. This is how algorithms should get refined, seeing a result like this, understanding why and tweaking it.

Apologies to non baseball fans trying to follow that.
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Midge
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#210 » Mon Dec 03, 2018 7:29 am

SpaceDandy wrote:Given all the confidence the system has in knowing this squad, it ought to know they are, um, not good. No offense, but just objectivly not as good. Some data stabilizes quicker than other in data sets like this but should result in a stabilized understanding that this squad isn’t deserving of this rank - not conflating its confidence in the data with what that data is actually saying. Or at least better balancing between the number of data points and what those data points say. If the Baltimore Orioles played 1,062 games last season and the Red Sox played 162, at their respective winning percentages, one should be more confident how bad the O’s are and not overly diminish the Sox’s excellence based on fewer games played. Especially when the other squads/teams play closer to, per the analogy, 162 game schedule. This is how algorithms should get refined, seeing a result like this, understanding why and tweaking it.

Apologies to non baseball fans trying to follow that.


It is refined regularly as it gains confidence with other squads.

The problem here is people conflating TrueSkill with RANKING.

The system is not RANKING teams. It is giving them a True Skill score and a certainty based around that score. Then simply sorting squads based on the combined metric.

They are CERTAIN of this squads number with NO uncertainty ... and I would venture to say they are pretty correct in that assertion considering it is a terrible squad with a terrible True Skill score.

Everyone here is getting caught up in the ranking, when the ranking of a squad like AncientWarriors can fluctuate immensely because they allow their sigma to fluctuate quite often with a week off or more. That adds UNCERTAINTY ... and the system processes it as not being certain of where it should be, while it is still certain, given the amount of data it has, that the other squad sucks ass.

Also, the assumption that being ranked 435 is somehow taking someone's spot is kind of laughable. It is not difficult in the slightest to get ranked in the top 300 considering there are barely 300 legit squads playing at this point.
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