KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

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Boog
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#171 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:33 pm

You can't take the rankings too seriously. A few weeks ago, we faced a squad called Japan-Wars. Their overall war record is 16-232 (no ties!). My squad is not that amazing or anything, but we've won more than we've lost over the last 4 months, and they were ranked higher than us, somewhere around 550. Looking back on their history, there has been no time that they've had a winning record. They do war a ton, though, but are 6-86 alone this year. I don't know how they are in the top 2000, tbh.


Chancellor
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#172 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:48 pm

Yeah, it just...this goes beyond "this ranking seems weird" to "this algorithm just can't be right", I think.

When two identical squads face each other, one of them gains points no matter what. The other one has no change on a win or tie but gains points on a loss.

That seems like a pretty strong signal that something is screwed up.


DarkRebel
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#173 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:40 pm

I am not going to say anything more about ksod ranking algorithm, lol. Have said enough.


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Midge
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#174 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:23 am

Chancellor wrote:Yeah, it just...this goes beyond "this ranking seems weird" to "this algorithm just can't be right", I think.

When two identical squads face each other, one of them gains points no matter what. The other one has no change on a win or tie but gains points on a loss.

That seems like a pretty strong signal that something is screwed up.


That one is actually really really simple to explain ... and you don't have to know much about algorithms to do it.

BUT ... it won't matter to you ... so probably not worth it.
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Chancellor
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#175 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:57 am

I actually see where the error is. How do I pass this on to the devs responsible?

Code: Select all

protected function drawPrediction(Squad $squad, Squad $opponent)
    {
        return [
            [
                'text' => 'I predict a tie between ' . $squad->renderName() . ' and ' . $opponent->renderName(),
                'data' => $this->createOutcomeTableData($squad, $opponent, Outcome::Lose),
            ],
            [
                'text' => 'But if ' . $squad->renderName() . ' beats ' . $opponent->renderName() . ' the result will be:',
                'data' => $this->createOutcomeTableData($squad, $opponent, Outcome::Lose),
            ],
            [
                'text' => 'And if ' . $opponent->renderName() . ' beats ' . $squad->renderName() . ' the result will be:',
                'data' => $this->createOutcomeTableData($squad, $opponent, Outcome::Draw),
            ],
        ];
    }
   


EDIT:

Midge wrote:That one is actually really really simple to explain ... and you don't have to know much about algorithms to do it.

BUT ... it won't matter to you ... so probably not worth it.


?
Last edited by DeathStriker on Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Combined Back-to-Back Posts - Added "Edit"


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DeathStriker
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#176 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 7:09 am

Chancellor wrote:I actually see where the error is. How do I pass this on to the devs responsible?

Code: Select all

 ...

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Midge
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#177 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 8:48 am

Chancellor wrote:I actually see where the error is. How do I pass this on to the devs responsible?

Code: Select all

protected function drawPrediction(Squad $squad, Squad $opponent)
    {
        return [
            [
                'text' => 'I predict a tie between ' . $squad->renderName() . ' and ' . $opponent->renderName(),
                'data' => $this->createOutcomeTableData($squad, $opponent, Outcome::Lose),
            ],
            [
                'text' => 'But if ' . $squad->renderName() . ' beats ' . $opponent->renderName() . ' the result will be:',
                'data' => $this->createOutcomeTableData($squad, $opponent, Outcome::Lose),
            ],
            [
                'text' => 'And if ' . $opponent->renderName() . ' beats ' . $squad->renderName() . ' the result will be:',
                'data' => $this->createOutcomeTableData($squad, $opponent, Outcome::Draw),
            ],
        ];
    }
   


EDIT:

Midge wrote:That one is actually really really simple to explain ... and you don't have to know much about algorithms to do it.

BUT ... it won't matter to you ... so probably not worth it.


?


I was actually mistaken a little here. I looked at the wrong squad and thought one had a different sigma than the other ... which would have made this very to explain.

By the numbers, these guys are virtually identical in the system, but it probably is slightly different as the numbers extend out, meaning the system thinks it knows a little more about SHADOW than WAR going in, so whatever the result, it LEARNS more about WAR.

But, the numbers we can see are identical, so it could be identical all the way ... which is slightly perplexing. Though the predictions are often not what the point outcomes are at the end , from what I have seen.
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Chancellor
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#178 » Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:21 am

I was just wondering what prompted the "BUT ... it won't matter to you ... so probably not worth it." bit.

I posted saying "here are two squads with identical skill/mu/sigma", and instead of posting a response like "actually, check again -- the sigmas are different", you posted something that read an awful lot like "pfft you're not worth my time."

Maybe you didn't mean to, but you came across pretty harsh there.

Edit: By the way, your follow-up guess about it being a very slightly different sigma wouldn't explain why WAR would be +0 for a win, +0 for a tie, and +5 for a loss. The code I posted above shows the actual issue -- there's a bug, and it's actually showing the results for loss, loss, and tie respectively where it says it's showing tie, win, and loss.


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Midge
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#179 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:17 am

Chancellor wrote:I was just wondering what prompted the "BUT ... it won't matter to you ... so probably not worth it." bit.

I posted saying "here are two squads with identical skill/mu/sigma", and instead of posting a response like "actually, check again -- the sigmas are different", you posted something that read an awful lot like "pfft you're not worth my time."

Maybe you didn't mean to, but you came across pretty harsh there.

Edit: By the way, your follow-up guess about it being a very slightly different sigma wouldn't explain why WAR would be +0 for a win, +0 for a tie, and +5 for a loss. The code I posted above shows the actual issue -- there's a bug, and it's actually showing the results for loss, loss, and tie respectively where it says it's showing tie, win, and loss.


That is fair ... sometimes I am just an asshole.
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DeathStriker
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Re: KSoD Squad Ranking Website - Discussion Topic

Post#180 » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:47 am

KSoD Website Down

The KSoD Squad Ranking Website is currently experiencing issues.

When I clicked on the link I get the following...

"Whoops, looks like something went wrong."

This issue has been reported to those in charge of the KSoD Squad Ranking Website...
 
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